The Myth of Closeness

There has been an interesting media dichotomy in this election. The mainstream media has done its best to create the impression that this is a "horse race" and that things are wildly uncertain. In the meantime, the blogosphere basically has resigned to the fact that an Obama victory is a foregone conclusion.

Now, clearly anything can happen, and we cannot predict the events of the next 11 days and how they might affect the electoral map. But, people, please look at the DATA!! Obama is dominating by every useful metric that man or woman has created to evaluate this stuff. Nate's model currently has a 96.3% win percentage for Obama, and over 50% of his total scenarios are Obama landslides. Every recent poll in VA and NC have him leading. He's winning in MONTANA. RealClearPolitics (leans right) and Pollster (leans left) give him dramatic leads as well. The only outlets that are calling this "close" are the mainstream media, where viewership and higher ratings depend upon the illusion of a close election.

Make no mistake, Obama could still lose, but it would require an unprecedented late shift and a remarkable drop in enthusiasm. So, I guess that my message is: "Get excited, Democrats, and leverage that excitement by volunteering and GETTING OUT THE VOTE!!!!"

-Education Dude