There should be some sort of Read the Constitution Test

before getting placed on a Presidential ticket.

Palin's latest gem, as reported by the WSJ Law Blog. Apparently the media violates the First Amendment when they engage in unflattering coverage:

“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

Palin reportedly told WMAL that her criticism of Obama’s associations, such as those with Bill Ayers and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, shouldn’t be considered negative attacks. The media’s suggestions that it’s going negative may threaten a candidate’s free speech rights under the Constitution, she said.

-Law Dude

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Fallows examines what we know about Obama’s management and leadership, and it’s pretty amazing.

Marc talks about the variety of messages the McCain campaign is putting out there in the closing days. This – more than anything else – strikes me as the pathology that made sure the McCain campaign never got any traction. The complete lack of strategy and coherence is indicative of an incredibly poorly run organization.

Matt sees a bunch of different kinds of unities at play in Obama’s potential presidency.

Ezra has fun with some conspiracy theories.

Best picture of he day, via Andrew and Marc.

Rove can’t even stay on message.

The Economist endorses Obama.

Josh at TPM asks a fabulous question about what victory means in a modern political environment.

The Wright ads hit the air in the home stretch. Two things about this. 1) If anyone thought this wouldn’t eventually happen, they were naïve, particularly given the tenor of the rest of the campaign. You know that if McCain loses and they hadn’t released the hounds on this, there would be even MORE second-guessing than there already would have been. 2) Either John McCain can’t control his party’s actions or he’s a hypocrite, because he said Wright was off limits. Either is plausible.

George Will takes McCain to the shed in yesterday morning’s WaPo. He hasn’t endorsed Obama, but he’s being ROUGH on McCain.

Andrew and Seed on Obama the empiricist.

Ezra says that McCain wouldn’t be accused of running a somewhat racist campaign if he did a better job of criticizing the racism in his coalition. (And I’m not suggesting that his whole coalition is racist, only that there are racist elements.)

A truly weird Esquire articles looks at prominent white supremacists who are going to vote for Obama.

Remembering Why I Love Obama, Part 37164

After the Phillies won the World Series last night, I was too excited to go to bed, so I actually stayed up and watched the Daily Show at its regular time. Virtually unheard of in the Education Dude household.

Compare Obama on the Daily Show with anything McCain has said in the last week. Expert analysis: Obama seems like all of my funny, smart friends, and McCain seems like the annoying uncle I try to avoid at family picnics.

He tackles a lot of the things we've been talking about on this blog, particularly the "Bradley Effect." On that, Obama has this to say:

"I don’t think white voters have gotten this memo about the Bradley effect."

Jon Stewart then asked him whether his white half might be hesitant to vote for a black guy, to which Obama responded:

"It’s a problem ... I’ve been going through therapy to make sure I vote properly on the 4th."

I love this guy.

-Education Dude

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Nate breaks down the undecided numbers and looks at the African-American voting surge. He also looks at potential jubilation in Chicago:

“… what kind of odds could you have gotten in 1908 that a black dude would get elected president before the Cubs won the Series again?”

Matt looks at the odds that YOUR vote will be the deciding vote. If you live in DC or Utah, it doesn’t look good for you.

HuffPo has a compendium of glum GOPers.

Brian Schaffner at Pollster looks at the breaking of undecideds in past elections. Interesting stuff.

Ben has a picture of a house with a confederate battle flag and an Obama sign. The world is changing.

The AFL-CIO says Obama is in the rust belt.

Matt thinks Ezra’s wrong to paint Obama as un-progressive.

Ezra to McCain: “Warning people that Obama wants to spread the wealth around might actually be appealing to an electorate that’s saying , ‘Hey, we need some wealth over here!’”

From my running series, “Signs that the Democrats are regaining the swagger,” this Obama quote:

"'By the end of the week, he’ll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in Kindergarten,' he said."

Obama Campaign Finally Addresses Palin

in a very effective ad...

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Look to the right. That's tightening. Don't panic, but start WORKING HARD. If you're not already volunteering and helping to get out the vote in a battleground state, why not?

And with that, on to the clips ...

Marc makes speculating on the Obama cabinet a daily exercise.

Does anyone else think that the “one party rule” argument that the Republicans are making is funny? Doesn’t it inherently undermine either the presidential candidate or the congressional ones? Or as I heard someone else put it, "They're all going to lose, so vote for me!"

Andrew has McCain v. Palin escalating to “war” status.

Politico looks at the connection between how bad things are for McCain versus how bad things look for

McCain. If it sounds complicated, that’s because it is.

If you’re a regular Andrew Sullivan reader, you know he has a daily feature, “The View From Your Window.” Today’s picture is of Fairbanks, Alaska, and that building on the far left is where Education Dudette and I stayed last summer. It was an awesome trip, which is to say, not everything about Alaska blows as hard as Sarah Palin does.

Sean at FiveThirtyEight writes an amazing piece about the state of the race in North Carolina. I'm starting to get chills.

Nate looks at the days polls. The national numbers are fluctuating a bit – potentially tightening a little – but the state numbers look amazing for Obama.

Ben has the McCain aid on whom the campaign is trying to peg the blame for Palin's wardrobe speaking out on the media.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist – a Republican – just decided to extend early voting hours in Florida. For those keeping score, more hours mean more voters, a situation which tends to favor Democrats. Apparently, he wants to be on the right side of history.

Marc notices that Dole didn't get to the McCain rally in NC today.

Obama's Infomercial- A Strategic Mistake?

I have no doubt that Obama will be terrific tomrrow. If the race was close, or if Obama was behind, his infomercial would have the potential to be a real game changer. But given his lead, the upside is minimal and the risks are large.

One of the few areas where Obama can be legitimately crticized of old-school political cynicism is his broken pledge to accept public financing for his general election campaign. His campaign realized Obama could vastly out-fundraise McCain and calculated that going back on his word to accept public financing would not be punished by the voters.

Up until now, the campaign has been dead right. Obama has used his financial advantage to drastically outspend McCain in a host of battleground states. Possibly because spending disparities are targeted to strategic states, the source of Obama's financial advantage has fallen under the radar as a national political issue. Yet, with six days until the election, the campaign will bludgeon the public with a $3 million advertisement, aired nationally, in prime time. If McCain is smart, he will use this opportunity to make Obama's refusal to accept public financing a central issue in the final days of the campaign. I almost hope he does; because 6 more days of Joe the Plumber would be unbearable.

-Law Dude

Biden Pwns Lightweight Reporter

The conventional story line in the media this week has been that Biden is a gaffe machine. While his prediction that Obama will be tested in the first 6 months was a boneheaded line, he consistently does himself and the campaign credit during media interviews. Like this one, where he destroys bushleague questions from a lightweight reporter.



The whole video is worth watching (and the reporter's defense of her questioning may be found here), but here is the money shot of idiotic questions and solid responses:

Barbara West: You may recognize this famous quote. "From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs." That's from Karl Marx. How is Sen. Obama not being a Marxist if he's intending to spread the wealth around?

Sen. Joe Biden: Are you joking? Is this a joke?

West: No.

Biden: Or is that a real question?

West: That's a question.

Biden: He is not spreading the wealth around. He's talking about giving the middle class an opportunity to get back the tax breaks they used to have.

I know this has been a pretty mean campaign. I was on a television station the other day and doing a satellite feed to a major network in Florida. And the anchor quotes Karl Marx and says in a sense, "Isn't Barack Obama Karl Marx?" You know I mean folks, this stuff you're hearing, this stuff you're hearing in this campaign, some of it's pretty ugly.

-Law Dude

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Today’s MUST READ is from Nate Silver, and he talks about the “Three Ashleys.” It is quite poignant, and it will remind you why we MUST elect Barack Obama.

Nate has a bunch of other stuff worth reading this morning if you’re interested in either whether the race is tightening or the future of the US Senate.

If you want to follow the early voting numbers, go to GMU’s Michael McDonald’s site. There’s a Doobie Brothers joke in here somewhere.

Martin has the Dems taking a big line of credit to help with the Congressional races. This is on top of the unprecedented money already being pushed out.

Marc looks at various takes on the media “bias” and looks at Pew’s HUGE Obama numbers.

Matt looks at the assumption that Democrats must govern from the center.

An End to the Tyranny of John Murtha?

Eve Fairbanks at The New Republic blog looks at the handful of Democrats who are at risk of losing their seats in Congress next week. In a year that strongly favors Democrats, this is an elite group of "f-ups" and unlucky dudes. Even among this group, however, John Murtha stands out, for calling his own district "racist" and then attempting to apologize by calling his constituents "rednecks." Fairbanks doesn't think we should care if he loses:

"And, to my mind, Murtha's denigration of his constituents as racists and rednecks wasn't merely an awkward gaffe. The concept of an existential, cultural, and unbridgeable rural-urban divide has been one of this election's lamest themes ... If poll-goers vote down a Democrat who touted this insulting concept as well as the Republicans who demagogued it, I can't say I'll be that sorry."

I tend to agree, especially given the other nonsense that Murtha has been behind over the years. The real reason I wrote this post, however, was to use the phrase "an end to the tyranny of John Murtha." That exact phrase comes DIRECTLY from a mass mail Christmas card that Education Dudette's parents received from one of their very right wing friends last year. How much of a nutter do you have to be to write about John Murtha in your Christmas cards??

-Education Dude

Afternoon Arugula

Edsall has a huge – yet speculative – list of potential Obama appointees. Marc comments as well. It’s important to remember that this is an incredibly disciplined campaign, so this is little more than educated guessing, at best. But, grist for the mill and such.

Weird shenanigans in Mitch McConnell’s surprisingly close re-election bid. He’s the Senate minority leader.

Another major news outlet – MSNBC – has Obama crossing the 270 barrier.

Obama policy advisor corrects folks on the “redistribution” scare tactics.

Matt has a senior diplomat from the Bush administration lauding Obama’s positions. Also, folks are bracing for the conservative “bloodbath.”

Ezra has a great take on the “accidental genius” of the American campaign process and its ability to expose the real character of the candidates. He also cautions us against overestimating presidential power.

I’m not the only one who’s surprised at the race NOT tightening.

Nate looks at Virginia’s importance … Obama has what looks like a very secure lead, according to the last five polls.

T-Nehisi points out that Obama is really executing on Dean’s strategy.

Marc has visual evidence of the enthusiasm gap. (He also has a bonus sexy robocall.)

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

It’s David Axelrodapalooza this AM, with pieces in Politico and the NYTimes.

Ben has Obama reassuring folks that there won’t be crazy lurches to the left if he and a bunch of other Dems get the nod in a week.

Andrew thinks that Obama could manage a more moderate Iran, whereas McCain would miss the opportunity entirely.

Marc has some good questions for the near future, including this one:

“4. Do potential Obama voters see the huge crowds and think to themselves, nah, I don't need to vote because he's got it locked up.”

Matt thinks we’re entering the Biden era.

Ezra looks at the Al Qaida “endorsement” of McCain and doesn’t see much irony.

More moderate Republicans moving toward Obama.

TPM has today’s Zogby polls looking good for Obama in Bush states.

Nate argues that reports of a “Bradley Effect” in 2006 were more likely residual “Republican Effects.”

Some folks are wondering, "Where is Condi Rice?"

The cast of The Wire is campaigning for Obama in NC. My head is about to explode due to pleasure overload.

Afternoon Arugula

Blumenthal reminds us that almost all McCain victory scenarios go through Virginia, and that Obama has a big lead there.

Ben has Obama with 100,000 supporters in Denver.

Andrew has another chapter in the infighting at the McCain camp over Palin.

Marc also looks at the schism, as reported by Ben as well.

Nate gives McCain some unsolicited advice.

Matt is unimpressed by McCain’s failure to remember all of the former Secretaries of State who support him.

Matt to McCain: telling people that voting for their preferred candidates will put those candidates in power isn’t a strong argument.

Ezra has a cool picture of Obama with a little kid. Doesn’t hurt his cred with undecideds to have a WSJ in his hand, either.

About the Pollster Movement

If you're watching that chart to the right, you'll notice that I keep predicting it will start to tighten, and it doesn't. What does seem to be happening, though, is that undecideds are breaking for Obama at the end. McCain's trend is pretty steady, while Obama's looks to be moving up slightly. Blumenthal thinks that the general trend is "stability," but I can't help being surprised that it hasn't gotten any closer.

-Education Dude

Palin in 2012? Really?

I'm deeply skeptical of the fact that Palin will be the standard bearer of the Republican party that runs against a theoretically incumbent Democrat in 2012. Andrew has been relentless in criticizing the directionless Republican party, but Marc - among others - makes the case somewhat convincingly.

I think Ta-Nehisi actually has it right. His basic argument - which Ross agrees with - is that the utter ugliness of this campaign makes Palin completely unviable in 2012. In other words, an Obama victory essentially would mean that the fears into which she tried to tap have evaporated. Ta-Nehisi says:

“These cats have to find a new way to sell the package. If you can't otherize the black guy whose middle name is Hussien, who can you otherize?”

It'll be even harder when that guy is the incumbent President.

-Education Dude

Update: Noam Scheiber at TNR turns in a litany of more nuanced reasons why Palin is a bad idea. Suffice it to say, methinks he's right.

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Politico has this early vivisection of the McCain campaign.

Marc has McCain’s memo calling the Obama campaign the “most negative ever.” I have a team of psychologists calling that “projection.”

Greenspan: “Whoops!”

Ezra has a post on campaign reporting that’s worth checking out, if only to glimpse Newsweek’s Michael Hastings’ raw hate for Rudy Giuliani.

Go here to contribute to El Tinklenberg for Congress. He’s the Democrat challenging Michele Bachmann, that lunatic neo-McCarthyite who made that insane rant on Hardball. He looks like he has a shot at ousting her according to the recent polling.

Bill Weld and Scott McClellan are the two most recent high profile Republicans to endorse Obama.

The Myth of Closeness

There has been an interesting media dichotomy in this election. The mainstream media has done its best to create the impression that this is a "horse race" and that things are wildly uncertain. In the meantime, the blogosphere basically has resigned to the fact that an Obama victory is a foregone conclusion.

Now, clearly anything can happen, and we cannot predict the events of the next 11 days and how they might affect the electoral map. But, people, please look at the DATA!! Obama is dominating by every useful metric that man or woman has created to evaluate this stuff. Nate's model currently has a 96.3% win percentage for Obama, and over 50% of his total scenarios are Obama landslides. Every recent poll in VA and NC have him leading. He's winning in MONTANA. RealClearPolitics (leans right) and Pollster (leans left) give him dramatic leads as well. The only outlets that are calling this "close" are the mainstream media, where viewership and higher ratings depend upon the illusion of a close election.

Make no mistake, Obama could still lose, but it would require an unprecedented late shift and a remarkable drop in enthusiasm. So, I guess that my message is: "Get excited, Democrats, and leverage that excitement by volunteering and GETTING OUT THE VOTE!!!!"

-Education Dude

Afternoon Arugula

I get chills about Obama when I read things like this piece of his interview with Joe Klein. He reminds me why I fell in love with him in the first place. Take the time to read Klein’s whole piece in Time. It's worth it.

Nate sees a lot of surprisingly high pro-Obama numbers today.

This story about a burly white dude in Ohio lending his NASCAR jacket to a bunch of old Jewish ladies before switching his vote to Obama at the last minute is unreal.

Yale profs: robocalls don’t work, so stop fretting.

Mike Allen has Republicans expressing exasperation at the wind down of the McCain campaign.

Marc keeps looking to 2012 and seeing an extremely well-dressed Republican challenger.

TPM is almost wetting itself about the Republican congressional candidates aiming at McCain and vice versa.

They also have McCain shifting money around pretty extensively.

Of Democrat Bondage

I'm certainly not the first person to declare that this election represents a fundamental generational shift in American politics, and I'm sure I won't be the last (especially if Obama wins). Honestly, it doesn't get any better than Andrew Sullivan's piece in the December 2007 Atlantic - Goodbye to All That: Why Obama Matters - when it comes to explaining this potentially seismic movement.

According to Andrew, this shift obviously is about re-framing American politics around something other than the Baby Boomers' culture wars post-Vietnam. But at a more visceral level I think it's about power. And I don't mean power in terms of international relations, but rather how and why power is wielded electorally and from a policy perspective. Anyone who has encountered politicos at any level in the previous several decades notices the swagger of those on the right and the tentativeness of those on the left. This is obviously a sweeping generality, but I don't think I'm too far off. Post 60s it became de riguer for hawkish conservatives to be tough and for progressives to be - excuse the term - pussies.

This has been reinforced by the incessant nail-biting among Democrats. My father and I had a talk about this last night, and I said "In a month, we're going to look at Obama's pre-election polling lead and wonder why anyone had any doubt." And he reminded me, "Democrats haven't been winners in my lifetime, let alone yours."

It's sort of like high school, really. The fast economic times of the late 70s, 80s and 90s were like the carefree teenage years for the conservative, football-team-captain-like United States of America. Your problems - while seemingly devastating - are really not that big a deal, because how much trouble can you really get in? You have a stand-off with your rival team at a bar, but eventually they stand down and you declare victory (Cold War). The only fights you pick are pretty easy to win, even if you're just trying to impress your friends and shake down some lunch money (oil). But then suddenly, you're a little older, your older brother buys you some beer, and you get the keys to the new car. You start to get reckless, and all of a sudden you've maxed out your parents' credit cards (deficit, financial collapse), the car is in a ditch (Iraq or Afghanistan), and all of the smart kids are going to college (China and India).

I guess the gist is - not to put too fine a point on it - "who looks like a pussy now, conservatives?"

-Education Dude

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Charlie Cook thinks it will take a massive, massive event to change the dynamics at this point.

Nate revisits the Bradley Effect, just for good measure.

The NYTimes has a compendium of former McCain strategist Mike Murphy’s criticisms.

Marc looks at early voting in Georgia and explains why that AP poll calling the race a tie is flawed.

Ta-Nehisi realizes that the real Joe the Plumber incident makes Obama look great.

TPM and HuffPo have Chuck Todd railing on the McCain campaign.

Blumenthal’s morning update has Obama moving positively for the fourth consecutive day. I still think it will tighten. TPM’s morning round up catches the new Quinnipiac polls which have Obama up in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The Ohio numbers look too good to be true, so they probably are.

This WaPo analysis of their latest numbers has nothing interesting to say, except I want to give them props for what I hope is a Spinal Tap reference in the title. E-mail me if you know how to get an umlaut over the “n” in HTML.

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Matt thinks that socialism – at least how McCain describes it – IS American.

He also reminds us that ads must also be persuasive, in addition to inflammatory. Kittens on fire are really sad, but they won’t make me vote McCain.

Ezra wonders if this late in the game Al Qaida reverse-reverse psychology will have an effect. There’s web chatter on Al Qaida sites about how to ensure a McCain victory. He also wonders:

"Meanwhile, can you imagine the outcry if intelligence experts had broken into a locked al Qaeda site and found deep conversations asking how best to ensure Barack Obama's election?"

Ezra also has the fight to define Obama’s parameters as President beginning.

Andrew scorches Palin on intellectual curiosity and can’t believe Steve Schmidt is a “strategist.”

Marc has legal info on the clothing purchases.

And be sure to check out Jon Stewart giving a big “F%$@ You” to Palin.

Annals of DUMB Mistakes

For the record, this thing with Palin's wardrobe doesn't really piss me off. Sure, she spent $150,000 in campaign money during a recession to outfit herself and her family, but I'm pretty much willing to overlook that. One of Marc's readers has a good perspective:

"Yet for that 150K, what have you got? A Palin who shines, who appears on the front page of every newspaper in the country, whose image lingers on the screen in every newscast, and who dazzles foreign leaders when meeting them in person ... Seriously, what else is the GOP going to be able to capitalize on with her? The wonkish credentials? The well articulated positions? ... For 150K, they bought Extreme Makeover: GOP Edition."

It's about image, and there are many ways in which a campaign can pay for image, this being one of them. Compared to the amount of money the campaigns spend on image via ad buys, this doesn't even register.

But, seriously, how stupid is this? It is ridiculously easy to pile on, because there are so many great visuals. HuffPost's front page has a photo essay of all of her post convention outfits, including a picture of her daughter with a Louis Vuitton bag. They add this:

"During a week in which the Republican ticket is trying to highlight its connection to the working class -- and, by extension, promoting its newest campaign tool, Joe the Plumber -- it was revealed that Palin's fashion budget for several weeks was more than four times the median salary of an American plumber ($37,514). To put it another way: Palin received more valuable clothes in one month than the average American household spends on clothess in 80 years. A Democrat put it in even blunter terms: her clothes were the cost of health care for 15 or so people. "

Bottom line: there is not a single positive way to spin this, and it will get a ton of attention for at least a couple of days. And even if we completely forget about this by Friday, which is doubtful (cue Tina Fey at Saks), it will have consumed 15% of the remaining total time in this election (2/13 days). John McCain needs to make up a lot of ground according to polls. This is not the way to do it.

-Education Dude

Robot Laughter

I really can't say enough about how awesome Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is. One of the best things about visiting is looking at the fascinating chart in the right margin, where they outline the current probability of various election outcomes, based on the 10,000 scenarios the model processes each day. For example, they look at the probability that (all numbers based on 9:28 EST on 10/21/08):

McCain wins popular vote (9.48%, 948/10000)
Obama loses Ohio, but wins the election (77.69%, 2264/2914)
McCain loses Ohio, but wins the election (0.04%, 3/7086)
Identical map to the 2000 election (0.28%, 28/10000)

My favorite scenario, though, is the one in which McCain wins in a landslide, which is defined at 375+ electoral votes. Right now that is at 0.07%, or 7 times out of 10,000 scenarios. One very funny commenter remarks:

"I wonder if The Model gives a little digital chuckle when it simulates one of its seven McCain landslides."

By the way, right now and Obama landslide is predicted 36.37% of the time.

-Education Dude

Afternoon Arugula

Ben reports on the continuing scaling back of the McCain campaign. Watch for more oft his in the coming days … as the reasonable paths to 270 become narrower for McCain, it’s to his advantage to focus resources that make such paths happen.

Andrew, the consummate conservative, leaves no gray area. Even when voting liberal: “As I said: it's now a battle between hope and fear. There is no neutral ground any more. Do what you can.”

He also looks at the Pew poll, which gives Obama a huge lead in the top line. The internals are more interesting, though, showing Obama with the leadership edge.

Ezra reminds us that Obama is NOT suspending his campaign and thinks that NYTimes internal polling data points at Palin being a huge blunder. I agree, but I’m not sure any other picks he was considering would have been less worse blunders.

Matt looks at growing inequality and sees that it is a problem. No argument here. Structural issues in our economy make it awfully hard for basic measures of wealth to change much over multiple generations within a family, so the opportunity argument is a little bit of a red herring to me.

TPM composite has Obama moving up. Not terribly shocking news, except that it pretty clearly shows that McCain is not trending up. There are only so many days left for that to happen.

Nate has a nerdgasm and dissects the qualities of all of the national pollsters.

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Thoughts to Senator Obama and his family as his grandmother takes ill.

Andrew has stories of early voting. Nothing terribly partisan, just some hot, person-on-voting-booth popular sovereignty action.

Marc thinks Obama could have trouble with a Dem Congress.

Matt has some good stuff on incentives for pollsters and thinks there’s too much loaded history in the south for McCain supporters to be doing this at polls.

Various folks on whether or not McCain will whip out the “Wright” card.

Nate looks at party fidelity in polling and finds good news for Obama … also, yesterday’s polls show that if McCain has gained at all, it’s been minimal.

3 Votes to McCain!

Remember this summer when all the political talk was about who would be nominated to be VP? Then, pundits would note that a Vice Presidential choice rarely affects an election. In fact, the last time a VP selection delivered a state was LBJ moving Texas to the Democratic column in 1960.

Well, pundits, meet your next LBJ. Before Palin's selection, Obama planned to compete in Alaska. After the selection, Obama's camp pulled out of the state. That's right, Palin just delivered 3 electoral votes to McCain!

Afternoon Arugula

It's been a bigger than average Sunday ... Obama raises $150MM in September and the country's most popular Republican endorses him. On to the clips ...

Fallows on the character arcs of McCain and Powell and the boring, effective Obama

Andrew thinks Powell is making the argument Andrew has been making for months, and Andrew is right.

Ben has the transcript of Chris Wallace going after McCain on the robocalls. Either McCain is lying or he hasn’t listened to them.

Marc looks at the narrowing permutations of potential victory for both candidates and thinks that the Powell endorsement will hurt McCain more than it helps Obama.

Ezra thinks it’s funny that Palin rails on the liberal media Sunday through Friday, but parties with them on Saturday.

Matt is looking for the next R in line and thinks Huckabee looks like Churchill next to Palin.

He also likes Powell’s take on Muslim-Americans. I was tearing up at the description of the photo essay.

TPM wants us to brace ourselves for two weeks of pure slime.

Nate learns that Palin’s “real” America is way whiter than the actual America. I said it once and I will say it again … McCain is running a campaign that is not afraid of stoking racism.

Hey McCain! The 70s Called. They Want their Robo-Calls Back.

With less than 3 weeks til the election, McCain is bringing out the big guns. Across the battleground states, McCain has decided that Robo-Calls are a good way to smear his opponent get out his message. TPM has a collection of all of these calls, but here's one so you can get the flavor:

I'm calling on behalf of John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama and his Democrat allies in the Illinois Senate opposed a bill requiring doctors to care for babies born alive after surviving attempted abortions -- a position at odds even with John Kerry and Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama and his liberal Democrats are too extreme for America. Please vote -- vote for the candidates who share our values. This call was paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee at 202 863 8500.

Forget about the content of these messages. Here's what I don't get. When a robot calls your house, I can think of two outcomes: 1) You say "hello," realize you're talking to a robot, and then immediately hang up. Or 2) You stay on the line to find out which idiot paid money for a robot to call your house.

On the other hand, maybe not liking robo-calls is just a young person thing? Maybe old people love robo-calls? If so, this plan is genius. With robo-calls going only to landlines, this campaign is perfectly targeted. Young people only own cell phones.

-Law Dude

Powell to Appear on Meet the Press. Will Endorse Obama?

Colin Powell will be a guest on Meet the Press this Sunday. In the past, he has spoken favorably of Obama. Will Powell take the opportunity to endorse him?

It's a close call, but I'm predicting no endorsement. I think Powell wants another stint in government to make up for his role in the run-up to the Iraq war. An Obama endorsement will likely blacklist him from a McCain administration. He says nothing, and he remains on both Obama and McCain's shortlists for a top position.

-Law Dude

UPDATE: Powell will endorse! Full Disclosure- Education Dude disagreed with my post and predicted the endorsement.

Obama for President. But...

Since Obama announced his intention to run for President, Two Fairly Liberal Dudes have been unabashedly in his corner. Unlike any other politician, Obama represents most closely our values and policy positions. But as a responsible fake journalist, I'd like to provide a balanced view of our favored candidate.

Today's Washington Post's endorsement of Barack Obama recognizes his two biggest policy flaws: Iraq exit strategy and free trade.

Binding foreign policy should not be developed during campaigns. Obama's Iraq position was developed at the height of civil war in Iraq. Instead of rigidly following his 2006 plan, he should respond to conditions on the ground with the goal of shifting resources away from Iraq to Afghanistan and to restoring a capability to deter current and future adversaries from taking steps counter to American long-term interests.

As for the anti-trade rhetoric, the WaPost is dead on: Obama's criticism of NAFTA and free trade during his primary fight with Hillary was the low-point of his campaign.

Today also brought an editorial memento of a different kind: David Brooks' quasi-endorsement of Obama. This otherwise glowing article contains a caveat that even the most ardent Obama supporters should recognize:

Of course, it’s also easy to imagine a scenario in which he is not an island of rationality in a sea of tumult, but simply an island. New presidents are often amazed by how much they are disobeyed, by how often passive-aggressiveness frustrates their plans.

It could be that Obama will be an observer, not a leader. Rather than throwing himself passionately into his causes, he will stand back. Congressional leaders, put off by his supposed intellectual superiority, will just go their own way. Lost in his own nuance, he will be passive and ineffectual. Lack of passion will produce lack of courage. The Obama greatness will give way to the Obama anti-climax.

Obama campaigns today with the full backing of the entire Democratic party (with the exception of Rev. Jackson?). His campaign has been remarkably disciplined and controlled. But once Obama begins his Presidency, he may find that running the country, even a country with a Democratic, fillibuster-proof Congress, may not be as easy as running his campaign. With members of his own party doggedly pursuing their own parochial interests, Obama's ability to lead the country out of economic disaster and foreign policy quagmire will probably be constrained.

Now that my concerns are out there, I have one more thing to say. Obama for President.

-Law Dude

Afternoon Arugula

Does the right really think that old pictures of Bill Ayers are threatening to undecided voters? A white kid in a hoodie? Seriously?

Ben has the press getting literally physically abused at a McCain-Palin rally.

McCain and Obama yuk it up on stage together last night. Obama is actually funny. McCain is sort of funny like your weird uncle is funny once in a while.

One of Andrew’s readers interprets McCain’s anger. Definitely not totally on the “pro-Obama” message, but worth considering.

Marc sees the NRSC starting to consolidate resources.

One of Matt’s readers does an analysis of population density and voting patterns.

Matt also thinks things are likely to tighten. This is inevitable, I will write more about this in the coming days, and I need ya’ll not to freak out.

Afternoon Arugula

Nate thinks that Americans are too certain that McCain is running a negative campaign for him to pin that one Obama and he says that his map is almost unchangeable at this point.

Ben has some subtle robocalls from the McCain camp. And by subtle we mean NOT AT ALL SUBTLE.

Marc thinks substance takes a back seat to posture in these debates, so it wasn’t even a contest.


Andrew’s live blog is pretty good and he thinks Palin is now being groomed. Forget McCain.

Matt reminds us that the worst debate commentary comes from pundits, because they’re basically the polar opposite of the intended audience.

Read to the bottom of this Ezra post … he wonders if the campaigns have a “black swan” department that conjures up responses to implausible scenarios.

Greenberg’s focus group in some ways encapsulates the meta-narrative ... people actually like what Obama is saying.

They’re not laughing with you, John McCain …

TPM and Matt think McCain needs an Intrade bailout.

I am so sickened by this, I don’t know what to say.

Marc finds out what people were googling after the debate.

Matt doesn’t think people will suddenly be scared by progressive taxation.

Also, sorry the clips posting has been light lately ... between the Phillies getting to the Series and assorted campaign madness, it's hard to keep up some days!