30 Years from Now, This Won't Seem Like a Good Idea

Secretary Gates notes that the weapons systems we develop should be focused on winning the wars we are currently fighting:

The Army program, whose total cost could exceed $200 billion, “must continue to demonstrate its value for the types of irregular challenges we will face,” as well as for the full-spectrum of conventional conflict for which it was designed, Mr. Gates said.

As we've argued, exclusively focusing on asymmetrical conflicts now will lead to potentially catastrophic consequences in a future war with a country like China.

-Law Dude

Life Imitates Two Fairly Liberal Dudes

Daily Show's take on the Meet the Press Interview where Hillary's campaign chairman incorrectly said that Russert's father is dead.

While you're there, check out this interview with Doug Feith. The interview concludes with Jon's standard pitch for the author's book: "The book is very footnoted, and makes for SLOOOWWW reading."

The Calendar and the Democratic Primaries

The more analysis I see, the more it seems that the calendar of primaries was probably the greatest strategic obstacle in the nomination process ... especially given the Democratic candidates' near cookie-cutter policy platforms. Three particularly salient examples:

1) Michigan and Florida - Nothing that hard to master strategically here, but the struggle over the delegates in these two states continues to illustrate the jockeying that goes on to dominate the calendar itself.

2) Early Caucuses, Late Primaries - This Politico profile of Obama's delegate counter is telling. Obama was able to build nearly insurmountable leads by understanding the calendar. Yes, there were big states on the horizon for April and May when Obama's team was toiling in the February/March caucuses, but accumulating delegates early was the right strategy given his evident weaknesses in states where working-class voters dominate Dem primaries.

3) Candidate Identity - Check out this Ben Smith post on Sen. Clinton. I have seen arguments that say things like, "Had Hillary embraced the culturally conservative, gun-loving, champion of the working-class persona earlier, she could have won." Smith debunks this completely by illustrating how there is virtually no chance that a more conservative Clinton would have done better in the early primaries given that: 1) earlier states had more liberal, affluent voters; and 2) John Edwards had already cornered the market on the populist persona, and much more convincingly at that.

Anyway, I thought that was fascinating. Makes Obama's imminent victory all that much more remarkable, given that he was - for the most part - able to stick to a single, coherent message throughout the primary season.

-Education Dude

Foreign Policy Realism: Leave the Gun, Take the Cannoli

The National Interest turns in a funny, yet prescient comparison of US foreign policy alternatives to the Corleone family's strategic concerns in the first Godfather movie.

The punchline is that Michael's realism dominates in a world of emerging multi-polarity. Both Sonny the neocon and Tom the liberal institutionalist seem antiquated by comparison, given their mindset of hegemonic Corleone power.

Also check out the May/June Foreign Affairs for a fantastic analysis of what a multipolar world might look like, and how a blend of hard and soft power is more likely to deliver advantageous results than an either/or strategy.

-Education Dude

Clinton Campaign’s Chairman = Best MTP Guest Ever

Terry McAuliffe says Tim Russert’s father is dead during a meet the press interview. Turns out he’s alive.

MR. McAULIFFE: Absolutely. We will be together. This is--we're in a primary, we're both trying to win the nomination. But it's not impossible for Hillary Clinton to win. A lot of people have said that. Big Russ, if he were sitting here today, nothing's impossible. Jack McAuliffe, if he were with us today, they both--they're probably both in heaven right now, Tim, probably having a scotch, looking down and saying, you know what, this fight goes on. It's good for the Democratic Party. Millions of people coming out to vote. It's exciting.

MR. RUSSERT: Well, Big Russ is in the Barcalounger still watching this. God bless him.

Luckily that wasn't awkward at all.

-Law Dude

You Heard it Here First (Maybe)

Obama-Biden ticket.

Sweet foreign policy experience.
Picking a VP who is from a swing state is overrated.

-Law Dude

Was that .... relevance?

This is fascinating:

"Rebels who have stepped up attacks on Nigeria's oil industry in the last month said on Sunday they were considering a ceasefire appeal by U.S. presidential hopeful Barack Obama."

Just to be clear ... while HRC is fabricating imaginary, politically-motivated, intellectually lazy policies (see: gas tax holiday, 2nd amendment, enhanced citizen-hood for Guamanians) Obama just made headway toward peace in one of the world's most volatile regions.

Remind me, why are we still talking about this primary?

-Education Dude

Truth v. Fiction: Truth Wins

You can't make this stuff up ... two days ago, Sen Clinton made a bold prediction about today's Kentucky Derby:

"'I'm betting on the filly' -- a sentiment that Clinton has expressed. She has picked Eight Belles, the only filly in the 20-horse field."

Well, guess what happened? The filly - Eight Belles - had to be euthanized on the track after breaking both of her legs finishing second. To a horse named Big Brown.

-Education Dude