Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Matt and TPM wonder if the lie meme will catch on.

Ambinder hears that the Obama camp is calling in the cavalry.

Silver analyzes the effect of mothers on the race and takes a look at the new swing state polling data.

Klein looks at the scarcity of mediation in the information we process.

Also, bonus morning polemicism... Democrats, stop freaking out right now! I think I finally know what really religious people say when their "faith is being tested." Right now, your faith in the Obama campaign is being tested. Before you let newly ignited Republican base enthusiasm scare you, remember these four things:

1) Obama supporters freaked out through the spring, but a political newcomer still beat the Clintons - the most motoriously ruthless campaigners in a generation - in the primaries. This campaign knows what it's doing, so let's give them the benefit of the doubt. Plouffe has said again and again that they ignore national polling and consider their position incredibly strong in the battleground states that matter.

2) Related to #1, McCain is trying to play the game Obama has established. There seems to be some sort of concensus that the game is about "change." Obama keeps playing the same game he established at the beginning, while McCain plays the chameleon. Remind anyone of the Dem primary?

3) Did we ever really think the Republican base wouldn't show up for this? I know the "McCain as maverick" falsehood was a comfortable crutch when we were used to him running against the likes of Romney and Huckabee, but against Obama? This is completely natural movement of the R base out of the undecided column and into the McCain column.

4) Now that we're a week past the start of the R convention, two things are happening. One, you're seeing the polls normalize. Even though the national polls are useless from an electoral standpoint, they have some utility in looking at general trends vis-a-vis candidate visibility and enthusiasm. And two, the Palin pick and the convention all packed into one week is almost certainly (knock wood) the most dramatic sequence of events that could happen for the McCain ticket. So, we could be seeing the McCain apex here.

-Education Dude

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