Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight has a great viewer's guide over at Newsweek. He covers the race hour by hour and tells us what to look for. For his money, the 7PM EST hour is where to look for crucial bellwether situations, namely the closing of polls in Virginia, Georgia, and New Hampshire:
"Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsulvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West. Barack Obama has considerably more ways to win without Virginia, but a failure to close out the state would suggest at best a more circuitous route to victory ... Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this election. If there's one state where Obama is likely to overperform his polls, it's in Georgia ... On the other hand, if there is any state where the polls might overestimate Obama's numbers, it's in New Hampshire ..."
Check out the whole thing, so that you know when to pop the Cris and/or when to panic.
Coming later, some Liberal Dudes electoral math prognostication.
-Education Dude
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