The Lieberman Situation

There's a lot of speculation about the future of Joe Lieberman in the Democratic Senate caucus. For those of you who aren't keeping track, the hawkish Lieberman was once the Democratic Senator from Connecticut until his pro-Iraq War stance caused him to lose the state's Democratic primary. So, he ran in the general election as an Independent and became the Independent Senator from Connecticut. (I think he was also on a national ticket at some point.)

Anyway, he has caucused with the Senate's Democrats since being elected as an Independent, but his relentless campaigning for John McCain throughout the election has left many Democrats thinking he needs to be punished. Everyone's idea of punishment is different, but most folks seem to think he should either relinquish his chairmanship of the Homeland Security committee or be forced to leave the caucus. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has called Lieberman's actions "wrong," and the two gentlemen kicked off a series of what are sure to be fun discussions this weekend.

Until today, it had seemed like Lieberman lost his only real bargaining power in this situation; if the democrats had picked up three more senate seats, he could have been the 60th vote in a filibuster-proof majority. Now that 60 is looking extremely unlikely - though not impossible - Lieberman's vote is unlikely to be the deciding factor in major legislation. Two new reports are suddenly changing the calculus a little bit, though. One, TPM reports that President Clinton is making calls on Lieberman's behalf. Two, HuffPo is reporting that President-Elect Obama wants Lieberman to stay in the caucus.

I think there are a few ways to read this, with Obama's opinion being arguably the most powerful factor to consider. First, Obama clearly doesn't want a protrated fight over this. It would be distracting and definitely contrary to "the change we need." What could be more "old Washington" than the Senate Majority Leader pushing to boot an experienced Senator from a committee post or caucus over his endorsement of a fellow party member's rival candidate? It's sort of a bummer for folks to deal with, and everyone seems to benefit from this dying quickly and quietly. What better way to force reconciliation than Obama speaking out?

Second, with a lot of speculation over how Obama will interact with his former Senate colleagues, I think there is some important symbolism in taking a stand early. There isn't really a need to define who's in charge, as I think Obama's significant popularity and remarkable organization take care of that, but for him to say "this was ultimately about me, and I want the dude to stay" sends a message. It shows a remarkable ability to separate "politics" and "governance," a skill the Bush White House never developed and something that Obama seems to be establishing early with this move.

Finally, I think this is a good move - strategically - for Obama, as it takes a lot of options off the table in this situation. Lieberman seemed to balk at Reid's initial offer, which was basically "leave the chairmanship or leave the caucus." With Obama asking Lieberman to stay, he at once puts pressure on Lieberman to stay while also taking some of the onus off of Reid to follow through on that ultimatum. (Yes, it would make Reid look a little weak to change his mind on that at this point, but if there's someone it's okay to look weak against, it's the extremely popular, history-making President-Elect of your country and party.) Also, it puts Lieberman in a funky position of essentially having to defy Obama by joining the Republican caucus, which I can't imagine he wants to do. As if Lieberman weren't enough of a pariah right now, can you imagine how it would play if he suddenly joined the Senate Republicans? Not to mention it would essentially be tantamount to an early retirement for Lieberman, who is unlikely to get re-elected by Connecticut as a Republican. I'm just not seeing that being a win-win for a bunch of people. Obama's move at once makes it okay for Lieberman to stay in the caucus as chairman, while allowing Reid to save face with the progressives calling for Lieberman's punishment. And it costs Obama little political capital. I give Obama an "A" for this move.

-Education Dude