Post-Brunch Degestif

"The most qualified? No. I think they went with the political bullsh*t about narritives." Peggy Noonan and Mike Murphy on Palin.


She reads the teleprompter well. NYTimes analysis on Palin's speech.

Dowd on Palin and Ferraro- how incompetent vetting doesn't help female VP selections.

Finally, this gem: "Palin is a VP for the Rest of Us." The hors d'oeuvres loving, arugula eating, post-brunch degestif drinking libeardudes may disagree....

-Law Dude

Good Riddance

Detroit is down a mayor.

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Yglesias thinks we need to hear more about Palin's lies and also thinks we should calm down.

Andrew Sullivan wonders who the real celebrity is and – like me – shudders at Giuliani’s ignorance. Also, I hope the Rs watching realize the silliness of the former mayor of New York using the word “cosmopolitan” as a slur.

Ambers wonders if Palin expands the McCain map and has a transcript of Cindy McCain off-message on abortion.

Josh at TPM thinks the democrats need to come out swinging on “reform” and offers Giuliani a cookie for saying “9/11” under 3 dozen times. Also, BONUS, he loves that Palin used to brag about the same earmarks that her ticket condemns.

Even the AP thinks Palin stretched the truth last night.

HuffPo has a good transcript of GOP talking heads trashing Palin.

Time hits back on McCain's bullying of the press.

Bonus on education! Eduwonk has an outline of Obama's education policy.

The Limits of Family

The McCain campaign has decided that any attempt to vet Palin is a smear, and moreover, they're horrified that folks would make a political issue out of family. So, I thought we could play a quick game of "When is discussing family off-limits?"

1) Journalists questioning the maternity of Palin's youngest son, based on some seemingly unusual circumstances surrounding his birth? Off limits!

2) Palin appearing with that same child on the cover of two glossy magazines and using him as a metonymic symbol for extreme-right pro-life positions? Not off limits!

3) Suggesting that we might have something to learn about abstinence-only education through the circumstances surrounding Bristol Palin's pregnancy? Off limits!!

4) Trotting out Bristol Palin and her husband-to-be in front of thousands of cultural conservatives to put a few young faces on "conservative family values?" Not off limits!!

It's fun, and we can keep playing this game throughout the campaign. Maybe there's a nuanced reason for the differentiated responses above, but my guess is that it might have something more to do with political expediency. I know, I'm so cynical.

-Education Dude

Lay Off, Grandpa

Please add captions for this photo to the comments section:

-Education Dude

It Depends On What The Definition of "To Vet" Is ...

This defies explanation:

"I told [the city clerk of Wasillia] I appreciated her help, since I'm sure she's been bombarded with requests these last few weeks. The clerk's office keeps all City Council meeting agendas, minutes, legislation, ordinances, etc. She chuckled. Then she told me that I'm the first person who has asked her office for anything."

From The Washington Independent's Laura McGann, via Matt Yglesias.

-Education Dude

No Judgements (Shout Out to the Mispelling on the 2nd Ave Crunch Gym in NYC)

Talking Points Memo has a comprehensive list of the things the electorate learned yesterday about Alaska governor-cum-vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

First, we have to ask the question about the "known unknowns" vs. the "unknown unknowns" (God I miss Donald Rumsfeld). Now that the McCain camp has belatedly sent a vetting team to Alaska, who knows what we'll find out? Here, Palin's lack of meaningful experience hopefully will be an asset to her and the McCain campaign.

Second, we learn even more about the impetuousness of John McCain. Rumor has it that McCain got shot down after floating both Lieberman and Ridge - who folks now seem to think were sincere options, as opposed to pro-choice red herrings. And what does McCain do after he can't pick his buddy Lieberman? He throws a hail mary. Stunning lack of judgment here, I would be thrilled to have this guy making the important national security decisions.

Third, I love Matt Yglesias's take on the pregnancy debate. I believe - like most other folks - that this is a Palin family issue, not a political one. However, the McCain campaign and the Palin family are going out of their way to laud the "choice" to keep the baby. This is particularly hilarious coming from folks who would make judicial appointments predicated upon the future likelihood of overturning Roe v. Wade. If Sarah Palin had her way, her daughter - no matter how old she was - couldn't "choose" anything with respect to her pregnancy.

-Education Dude

Scientific Polls are BOOOORR-ING

According to the front page of the Washington Post, “An All-Out Battle for Women’s Votes Begins.” Without backing up this statement with any poll numbers or an explanation for its methodology, the Post claims, “But her selection has energized. . . some disaffected supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who resent that their candidate did not make it onto the Democratic ticket this year.”

Tell me Washington Post, how many are “some disaffected supporters?” 5? 15? Did the WaPost reporters call up the “20 equally passionate Hillary supporters” who decided to watch a movie, “The Squid and the Whale,” instead of Obama's acceptance speech, as chronicled in this equally hard-hitting New York Times article?

Virtually no one in the mainstream media has decided to take the radical step of waiting until there is a poll conducted on the effect of Palin’s selection on former Hillary supporters before making generalized statements of how disaffected Hillary supporters are “energized” by the pick.

Let’s get real. When those poll numbers get back, an insignificant number of former Hillary supporters will now support McCain because of the pick. It is completely irresponsible of the media to create a narrative by selectively seeking anecdotes from cherry-picked citizens, instead of relying on scientific polling data.

And for the record, any former Hillary supporter willing to vote for a pro-life, pro-gun, creationist, simply because of her sex, is an idiot.

-Law Dude

“Palin, Pro and Con” or “Mitt Must be PISSED”

Pro:

Dampens Dem’s post-convention bounce

McCain wins today’s news cycle- (but does winning daily news cycles win elections?)

An attempt to get Hillary supporters (but really, are they going to vote for two pro-life, conservative candidates just because there’s a woman on the ticket????)

Cons

Completely undercuts an attack on Obama’s experience.

Novelty of the pick is gone in 5 days. When the novelty is gone, what’s left?

She will get utterly PWNED in the debates (how many foreign policy positions has she laid out as an Alaskan mayor?)

-Liberal Dudes (alternative title by CEO Dudette)

In the Great Tradition of VP Prognostication

Liberal Dudes is officially calling Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as the McCain VP pick. This guess does not come nearly as early as other Liberal Dudes soothsaying, but we wanted to go 2 for 2.

-Education Dude

(Hat tip Marc Ambinder)

I'm Sure He'll Call ...

This compilation of CNN reporters waiting for the Obama campaign's text is PRICELESS.

Seriously, they're acting like a 16-year-old girl waiting for that guy they went out with last night to call.

"Is he going to text?"

"He said he'd text!"

"I hope there's not something wrong with my phone."

"I thought we had a really good time!"

-Education Dude

YouTube and the Death of Pandering

Sorry for the radio silence on the blog ... life is the biggest enemy of the writer in some cases.

In any event, this TPM piece on Bill Clinton is a must read. The big takeaway is that in the decade plus since Clinton last campaigned for president, things have changed:

"He's obviously got the same shrewdness and political canniness on many levels. But again and again through this cycle, in little ways and big, he's shown he's not quite in sync with this political era, doesn't quite grasp the new mechanics -- both the ideological texture and the nuts and bolts of the networked news cycle."

Now, juxtapose that analysis with this recent interview with Mark Penn from The Guardian. The whole interview is fascinating, even though he's mostly marketing his book on micro-targeting. Here's the money quote from the piece:

"Thus it was that Bill Clinton's successful 1996 election strategy, overseen by Penn, targeted "soccer moms", a label he coined. And thus it was, Penn's critics argue, that for too long Hillary's campaign was a muddle of small, contradictory, cautious messages, when what the moment required was passion, inspiration, and a promise of change."

Some folks would criticize the use of small, targeted, sometimes mutually exclusive messages. In the best cases, it's merely "knowing your audience." In the worst cases, it's pandering. Bill Clinton campaigned in a world wherein it was nearly impossible for anyone but the most embedded insider to have a meaningful interaction with those contradictions. Fast forward to 2008, and we have a hugely prevalent 24 news cycle, a hyperactive blogosphere, The Daily Show, and a seemingly bottomless trough of online streaming videos.

In short, "gotcha" can now be played passively.

-Education Dude

30 Years from Now, This Won't Seem Like a Good Idea

Secretary Gates notes that the weapons systems we develop should be focused on winning the wars we are currently fighting:

The Army program, whose total cost could exceed $200 billion, “must continue to demonstrate its value for the types of irregular challenges we will face,” as well as for the full-spectrum of conventional conflict for which it was designed, Mr. Gates said.

As we've argued, exclusively focusing on asymmetrical conflicts now will lead to potentially catastrophic consequences in a future war with a country like China.

-Law Dude

Life Imitates Two Fairly Liberal Dudes

Daily Show's take on the Meet the Press Interview where Hillary's campaign chairman incorrectly said that Russert's father is dead.

While you're there, check out this interview with Doug Feith. The interview concludes with Jon's standard pitch for the author's book: "The book is very footnoted, and makes for SLOOOWWW reading."

The Calendar and the Democratic Primaries

The more analysis I see, the more it seems that the calendar of primaries was probably the greatest strategic obstacle in the nomination process ... especially given the Democratic candidates' near cookie-cutter policy platforms. Three particularly salient examples:

1) Michigan and Florida - Nothing that hard to master strategically here, but the struggle over the delegates in these two states continues to illustrate the jockeying that goes on to dominate the calendar itself.

2) Early Caucuses, Late Primaries - This Politico profile of Obama's delegate counter is telling. Obama was able to build nearly insurmountable leads by understanding the calendar. Yes, there were big states on the horizon for April and May when Obama's team was toiling in the February/March caucuses, but accumulating delegates early was the right strategy given his evident weaknesses in states where working-class voters dominate Dem primaries.

3) Candidate Identity - Check out this Ben Smith post on Sen. Clinton. I have seen arguments that say things like, "Had Hillary embraced the culturally conservative, gun-loving, champion of the working-class persona earlier, she could have won." Smith debunks this completely by illustrating how there is virtually no chance that a more conservative Clinton would have done better in the early primaries given that: 1) earlier states had more liberal, affluent voters; and 2) John Edwards had already cornered the market on the populist persona, and much more convincingly at that.

Anyway, I thought that was fascinating. Makes Obama's imminent victory all that much more remarkable, given that he was - for the most part - able to stick to a single, coherent message throughout the primary season.

-Education Dude

Foreign Policy Realism: Leave the Gun, Take the Cannoli

The National Interest turns in a funny, yet prescient comparison of US foreign policy alternatives to the Corleone family's strategic concerns in the first Godfather movie.

The punchline is that Michael's realism dominates in a world of emerging multi-polarity. Both Sonny the neocon and Tom the liberal institutionalist seem antiquated by comparison, given their mindset of hegemonic Corleone power.

Also check out the May/June Foreign Affairs for a fantastic analysis of what a multipolar world might look like, and how a blend of hard and soft power is more likely to deliver advantageous results than an either/or strategy.

-Education Dude

Clinton Campaign’s Chairman = Best MTP Guest Ever

Terry McAuliffe says Tim Russert’s father is dead during a meet the press interview. Turns out he’s alive.

MR. McAULIFFE: Absolutely. We will be together. This is--we're in a primary, we're both trying to win the nomination. But it's not impossible for Hillary Clinton to win. A lot of people have said that. Big Russ, if he were sitting here today, nothing's impossible. Jack McAuliffe, if he were with us today, they both--they're probably both in heaven right now, Tim, probably having a scotch, looking down and saying, you know what, this fight goes on. It's good for the Democratic Party. Millions of people coming out to vote. It's exciting.

MR. RUSSERT: Well, Big Russ is in the Barcalounger still watching this. God bless him.

Luckily that wasn't awkward at all.

-Law Dude

You Heard it Here First (Maybe)

Obama-Biden ticket.

Sweet foreign policy experience.
Picking a VP who is from a swing state is overrated.

-Law Dude

Was that .... relevance?

This is fascinating:

"Rebels who have stepped up attacks on Nigeria's oil industry in the last month said on Sunday they were considering a ceasefire appeal by U.S. presidential hopeful Barack Obama."

Just to be clear ... while HRC is fabricating imaginary, politically-motivated, intellectually lazy policies (see: gas tax holiday, 2nd amendment, enhanced citizen-hood for Guamanians) Obama just made headway toward peace in one of the world's most volatile regions.

Remind me, why are we still talking about this primary?

-Education Dude

Truth v. Fiction: Truth Wins

You can't make this stuff up ... two days ago, Sen Clinton made a bold prediction about today's Kentucky Derby:

"'I'm betting on the filly' -- a sentiment that Clinton has expressed. She has picked Eight Belles, the only filly in the 20-horse field."

Well, guess what happened? The filly - Eight Belles - had to be euthanized on the track after breaking both of her legs finishing second. To a horse named Big Brown.

-Education Dude