Two more months of this?

Honestly, that's sort of how I think a lot of folks must feel this morning, particularly after McCain clinched (although maybe the imminent endorsement from our extremely unpopular current President can blunt that).

The storyline of last night will be interpreted and reinterpreted, but the bottom line seems to be that HRC controlled most of the news cycles in the days prior to Ohio and Texas, and a ton of previously undecided voters broke heavily for her in those states as a result. And, per the post below, most of the talk was negative regarding BHO (see the Canadian NAFTA blunder and the talk surrounding the 3AM commercials). What's not news about this is that going negative can work. However, the results HRC got will reinforce those tactics, and this could get a LOT more negative before the Ds have a candidate. Still, to cleanse ourselves of what's sure to be an onslaught of HRC spin, let's remember that her camp had to win both TX and OH to stay sort of competitive in the delegate count, and a couple of weeks ago we were talking about high double digit margins in both states.

I don't think we're going to dabble in delegate math, since TPM (talkingpointsmemo.com) and others are far more sophisticated in that arena, but the skinny seems to be that if the grounds shifted last night, it will be only slightly in HRC's favor, and given the wacky TX caucus, it's possible that BHO could add to his lead.

The way I see it, there are three possible scenarios for the rest of this thing, and they all have to do with momentum (thanks to Ben Smith and Marc Ambinder for some of this):

1) The post-coital glow of TX and OH wears off, and things return to status quo ante-Tuesday, leaving BHO with the formidable delegate lead and a supposed announcement of having raised something like $50MM in February. The momentum continues in his direction, he continues to win states, and he enters the convention with a still large lead (even if PA does end up breaking for HRC). Obama wins.

2) The momentum shifts, HRC starts a streak of victories, picking off some states she wasn't expected to win (WY?) and wins PA. Most delegate math would still have her trailing mathematically, but streaking into the convention with a bunch of wins could change the superdelegate psychology. Clinton wins.

3) The momemtum fluctuates. This is actually a scenario we haven't seen in 08, because BHO has steadily gained on HRC in national polls since the beginning of January. It's anybody's call if this happens, but it seems unlikely to me, given the fact that there aren't any huge contests until PA. Things like fundraising announcements and minor scandals (ala Canada NAFTA) just don't dominate the national psyche the way real contests do, and they wear thin after a few news cycles. It would take either one major thing OR a coherent sequence of minor things to shift the conversation over and over. Don't discount the Clintons when it comes to cooking up a strategy like this. Edge Clinton, but mostly unclear.