Dem’s and GOP’s Flawed Iraq End Game

Both Obama’s and Hillary’s strategy of removing combat brigades from Iraq as quickly as possible is flawed. Republican critics contend that such withdrawal will result in a full-scale civil war or a resurgence of Al Qaeda in Iraq. While the Al Qaeda claim is far from a certainty (over the past two years, even Sunni extremists have rejected Al Qaeda in Iraq, making me skeptical that Al Qaeda could ever establish a base in Iraq that could threaten American interests), a full-scale civil war in Iraq is probable if the U.S. was to begin a rapid withdrawal next January.

Yet, these critics fail to articulate how the U.S. can ever exit Iraq without the ignition of a Civil War or at the very least, a forfeit of the security gains from the surge. While McCain’s 100 years in Iraq statement was taken out of context (and it is disingenuous for the Democrats to continually hammer him on this point), no Republican critic of withdrawal can point to a realistically short time line where we can withdrawal without severe consequences. It is possible that the same violence that would result from a withdrawal in 2009 would occur if we withdrew in 2014 or 2019. As we’ve argued, the opportunity cost of remaining in Iraq for five years without expanding the size of our military has been harmful to our foreign policy interests, and the opportunity cost of remaining in Iraq indefinitely would be devastating.

Thus, the next President’s plans for Iraq should be as follows:

1. To plan for a withdrawal of U.S. forces.
2. To implement this withdrawal if the Iraqi government is unable to meet political, economic, and security benchmarks within a reasonable period of time.

If these benchmarks are met, then the U.S. would presumably be able to engage in a phased withdrawal that would not result in mass Iraqi bloodshed. If these benchmarks are not met, then the U.S. can credibly claim that the U.S. took all reasonable steps to ensure a peaceful Iraq, yet Iraqi political leaders valued sectarianism over peace. It is essential to U.S. foreign policy that the world not blame the U.S. as a sole cause of a Civil War that would devastate Iraqi civilians even more than 5 years of war.

-Law Dude