Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Thoughts to Senator Obama and his family as his grandmother takes ill.

Andrew has stories of early voting. Nothing terribly partisan, just some hot, person-on-voting-booth popular sovereignty action.

Marc thinks Obama could have trouble with a Dem Congress.

Matt has some good stuff on incentives for pollsters and thinks there’s too much loaded history in the south for McCain supporters to be doing this at polls.

Various folks on whether or not McCain will whip out the “Wright” card.

Nate looks at party fidelity in polling and finds good news for Obama … also, yesterday’s polls show that if McCain has gained at all, it’s been minimal.

3 Votes to McCain!

Remember this summer when all the political talk was about who would be nominated to be VP? Then, pundits would note that a Vice Presidential choice rarely affects an election. In fact, the last time a VP selection delivered a state was LBJ moving Texas to the Democratic column in 1960.

Well, pundits, meet your next LBJ. Before Palin's selection, Obama planned to compete in Alaska. After the selection, Obama's camp pulled out of the state. That's right, Palin just delivered 3 electoral votes to McCain!

Afternoon Arugula

It's been a bigger than average Sunday ... Obama raises $150MM in September and the country's most popular Republican endorses him. On to the clips ...

Fallows on the character arcs of McCain and Powell and the boring, effective Obama

Andrew thinks Powell is making the argument Andrew has been making for months, and Andrew is right.

Ben has the transcript of Chris Wallace going after McCain on the robocalls. Either McCain is lying or he hasn’t listened to them.

Marc looks at the narrowing permutations of potential victory for both candidates and thinks that the Powell endorsement will hurt McCain more than it helps Obama.

Ezra thinks it’s funny that Palin rails on the liberal media Sunday through Friday, but parties with them on Saturday.

Matt is looking for the next R in line and thinks Huckabee looks like Churchill next to Palin.

He also likes Powell’s take on Muslim-Americans. I was tearing up at the description of the photo essay.

TPM wants us to brace ourselves for two weeks of pure slime.

Nate learns that Palin’s “real” America is way whiter than the actual America. I said it once and I will say it again … McCain is running a campaign that is not afraid of stoking racism.

Hey McCain! The 70s Called. They Want their Robo-Calls Back.

With less than 3 weeks til the election, McCain is bringing out the big guns. Across the battleground states, McCain has decided that Robo-Calls are a good way to smear his opponent get out his message. TPM has a collection of all of these calls, but here's one so you can get the flavor:

I'm calling on behalf of John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama and his Democrat allies in the Illinois Senate opposed a bill requiring doctors to care for babies born alive after surviving attempted abortions -- a position at odds even with John Kerry and Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama and his liberal Democrats are too extreme for America. Please vote -- vote for the candidates who share our values. This call was paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee at 202 863 8500.

Forget about the content of these messages. Here's what I don't get. When a robot calls your house, I can think of two outcomes: 1) You say "hello," realize you're talking to a robot, and then immediately hang up. Or 2) You stay on the line to find out which idiot paid money for a robot to call your house.

On the other hand, maybe not liking robo-calls is just a young person thing? Maybe old people love robo-calls? If so, this plan is genius. With robo-calls going only to landlines, this campaign is perfectly targeted. Young people only own cell phones.

-Law Dude

Powell to Appear on Meet the Press. Will Endorse Obama?

Colin Powell will be a guest on Meet the Press this Sunday. In the past, he has spoken favorably of Obama. Will Powell take the opportunity to endorse him?

It's a close call, but I'm predicting no endorsement. I think Powell wants another stint in government to make up for his role in the run-up to the Iraq war. An Obama endorsement will likely blacklist him from a McCain administration. He says nothing, and he remains on both Obama and McCain's shortlists for a top position.

-Law Dude

UPDATE: Powell will endorse! Full Disclosure- Education Dude disagreed with my post and predicted the endorsement.

Obama for President. But...

Since Obama announced his intention to run for President, Two Fairly Liberal Dudes have been unabashedly in his corner. Unlike any other politician, Obama represents most closely our values and policy positions. But as a responsible fake journalist, I'd like to provide a balanced view of our favored candidate.

Today's Washington Post's endorsement of Barack Obama recognizes his two biggest policy flaws: Iraq exit strategy and free trade.

Binding foreign policy should not be developed during campaigns. Obama's Iraq position was developed at the height of civil war in Iraq. Instead of rigidly following his 2006 plan, he should respond to conditions on the ground with the goal of shifting resources away from Iraq to Afghanistan and to restoring a capability to deter current and future adversaries from taking steps counter to American long-term interests.

As for the anti-trade rhetoric, the WaPost is dead on: Obama's criticism of NAFTA and free trade during his primary fight with Hillary was the low-point of his campaign.

Today also brought an editorial memento of a different kind: David Brooks' quasi-endorsement of Obama. This otherwise glowing article contains a caveat that even the most ardent Obama supporters should recognize:

Of course, it’s also easy to imagine a scenario in which he is not an island of rationality in a sea of tumult, but simply an island. New presidents are often amazed by how much they are disobeyed, by how often passive-aggressiveness frustrates their plans.

It could be that Obama will be an observer, not a leader. Rather than throwing himself passionately into his causes, he will stand back. Congressional leaders, put off by his supposed intellectual superiority, will just go their own way. Lost in his own nuance, he will be passive and ineffectual. Lack of passion will produce lack of courage. The Obama greatness will give way to the Obama anti-climax.

Obama campaigns today with the full backing of the entire Democratic party (with the exception of Rev. Jackson?). His campaign has been remarkably disciplined and controlled. But once Obama begins his Presidency, he may find that running the country, even a country with a Democratic, fillibuster-proof Congress, may not be as easy as running his campaign. With members of his own party doggedly pursuing their own parochial interests, Obama's ability to lead the country out of economic disaster and foreign policy quagmire will probably be constrained.

Now that my concerns are out there, I have one more thing to say. Obama for President.

-Law Dude

Afternoon Arugula

Does the right really think that old pictures of Bill Ayers are threatening to undecided voters? A white kid in a hoodie? Seriously?

Ben has the press getting literally physically abused at a McCain-Palin rally.

McCain and Obama yuk it up on stage together last night. Obama is actually funny. McCain is sort of funny like your weird uncle is funny once in a while.

One of Andrew’s readers interprets McCain’s anger. Definitely not totally on the “pro-Obama” message, but worth considering.

Marc sees the NRSC starting to consolidate resources.

One of Matt’s readers does an analysis of population density and voting patterns.

Matt also thinks things are likely to tighten. This is inevitable, I will write more about this in the coming days, and I need ya’ll not to freak out.

Afternoon Arugula

Nate thinks that Americans are too certain that McCain is running a negative campaign for him to pin that one Obama and he says that his map is almost unchangeable at this point.

Ben has some subtle robocalls from the McCain camp. And by subtle we mean NOT AT ALL SUBTLE.

Marc thinks substance takes a back seat to posture in these debates, so it wasn’t even a contest.


Andrew’s live blog is pretty good and he thinks Palin is now being groomed. Forget McCain.

Matt reminds us that the worst debate commentary comes from pundits, because they’re basically the polar opposite of the intended audience.

Read to the bottom of this Ezra post … he wonders if the campaigns have a “black swan” department that conjures up responses to implausible scenarios.

Greenberg’s focus group in some ways encapsulates the meta-narrative ... people actually like what Obama is saying.

They’re not laughing with you, John McCain …

TPM and Matt think McCain needs an Intrade bailout.

I am so sickened by this, I don’t know what to say.

Marc finds out what people were googling after the debate.

Matt doesn’t think people will suddenly be scared by progressive taxation.

Also, sorry the clips posting has been light lately ... between the Phillies getting to the Series and assorted campaign madness, it's hard to keep up some days!

Toobin Checks Facebook During Debate

From CEO Dudette via Valleywag:




Yup, that's Jeff Toobin's laptop during last night's debate.

Jon Stewart Gets the Last Word on Palin Puck Drop

"They weren't booing her, they were shouting questions, 'What happened to tboooooooooper gate, did you aboooooooooooose your power?'"

The fun starts at 4:11.

Rev. Jackson Tries Again to Castrate Obama

I miss the time when Rev. Jackson only talked about his desire to cut off Obama's n*ts. Now, he's doing his best to follow through.

Jackson reportedly said that under an Obama administration, the "Zionists who have controlled American policy for decades" will come to an end and as would America's policy of "of putting Israel's interests first."

If Jackson was purposefully trying to derail Obama's campaign, I cant think of a better way to do it. On the other hand, maybe Jackson truly believes "Zionists control American policy for decades." Either way, Jackson is a disaster.

-Law Dude

Bradley Effect Disappearance Hypotheses

There has been a ton of talk lately about whether or not we can really trust the presidential polls, given the nefarious Bradley Effect that seems to spoil the chances of black candidates. At the risk of being repetitive, the Bradley Effect - named for Tom Bradley, former mayor of LA and one time California gubernatorial candidate - is the phenomenon whereby the outcomes of an election are significantly less favorable to a black candidate than reliable, pre-election polls had predicted. This is more complicated than straight-up racism, because the effect relies upon people being dishonest to pollsters.

Nate has a great analysis of various elements of the effect, and he rehashes a lot of the evidence that it no longer exists, which we have discussed here. Where Nate gets novel, however, is in discussing WHY the effect might have disappeared. There's a lot of good stuff, but here's something that strikes me as very relevant:

4. There may be some relationship to the revival of the religious right in the 1990s. For members of the religious right, there are now ample and automatic reasons to vote against any liberal candidate, a.k.a. their positions on issues like abortion. In addition, the religious right has made voting along cultural grounds (as opposed to policy grounds) more socially acceptable in general. So long as the voter believes he or she can articulate a "valid" reason for voting against an African-American candidate, there is little reason to deceive a pollster about one's intention."

I think this is a brilliant analysis. Rather than having to articulate an electoral preference based on foreign policy positions or fiscal views, folks now have the comfort of saying things like "He's okay with dudes kissing each other, so I hate him," or "He thinks that a teenager who is raped by her father shouldn't have to bring the pregnancy to term, so I can't vote for him," and there is a cultural justification for saying so. It can go the other way too, of course ("He won't let my brother and his partner adopt, so I'm voting against him" ... obviously, I actually think this sounds reasonable, but that's another story.) In any event, it does seem like our modern culture wars make it remarkably easy to find socially acceptable stand-ins for racial preference.

-Education Dude

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Ben has a striking contrast in the schedules of the candidates. Is McCain even TRYING to win?
If you haven’t yet, be sure to have "The Talk" with your older relatives. Maybe even make them watch The Youtube.

Ezra finds that racists can find social acceptance at McCain rallies.

McCain’s new stump speech – being unveiled today – contains the line “We got em right where we want em.” Where is that exactly? The White House?

Obama overtakes McCain on “leadership” in the internals of the new WaPo/ABC news poll.

McCain wishes he could have this one back.

Only in America: the AP makes sure to ask Levi Johnston the hard questions.

Nate thinks we’re about to see a major McCain “reboot” and looks at what seem like ridiculous odds for McCain (right now, on FiveThirtyEight, McCain has a below 7% chance of winning).

Family Values

Doonesbury by Garry Trudeau, October 12, 2008

Obamakin

We've heard a lot about Obamacans (Republicans voting for Obama), but we haven't heard a lot about Obamakins. Well, you heard it here first.

(Sunday) Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Only 90 economists scraped together to sign McCain’s “Letter from 100 Economists.”

McCain finally repudiates some of the truly awful stuff happening.

It seems like every time Nate writes a weekend post about the candidates’ competing ground games in a swing state, Obama has 8 kajillion open, bustling offices and McCain’s only office is closed with two little old ladies loitering outside. This makes me think landslide.

Ben picks up on the Palin-Flyers debacle. The video he links to might exhibit even louder booing than the one we have.

The NYTimes has the GOP getting shaky about McCain.

TIME calls the troopergate affair evidence that Palin’s administration is and was “shockingly amateurish.”

TPM makes a good point … McCain supporters seem genuinely surprised that McCain doesn’t think Obama is a terrorist. Also, there doesn’t seem to be any reason left to vote for McCain.

Hopefully this back and forth will mark an end to the most hate-filled stuff.

Ta-Nehisi has some good, yet scary context on what Wallace was really thinking.

And the Verdict is In... BOOOOOO

Nice try with the loud music to drown out the boos, Ed.

Update: Now with more booing!

Palin Dodges Even Sports Media

To continue the Philadelphia sports/politics weekend, this gem from the Inquirer:

"'But since the White Sox lost, I'll go ahead and root for the Phillies now,' Obama said.

Cynics might note that Pennsylvania is a battleground state in the upcoming election while California, home to the Los Angeles Dodgers, will almost certainly deliver its electoral votes to the Democrats. . . .

In the interest of equal time, The Inquirer extended the same invitation - talking sports - to Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, who was in town last night to drop the first puck of the Flyers season. That campaign declined the honor."

Vegas Odds on Palin at the Flyers Game

From the Philly Inquirer:

Here are the odds:
** 10/1 that Palin fall down while dropping the pick. If she falls down, you win $10 on a $1 bet.
** 1,000/1 that Palin will get in a donnybrook with Flyers captain Mike Richards at center ice.
If she gets in a fight, you win $1,000 on a $1 bet.

** Will Palin get more cheers or boos when she is introduced on the ice?
The bet is “even” that she will get more boos. In other words, if you bet, say, $100 that she’ll get more boos, your winnings would be $100 if that happened.
The bet is -130 that she’ll get more cheers; you would have to bet $130 to win $100.

** Will Palin wear a Flyers’ jersey to center ice?
The bet is “even” that she will. So if she wears a Flyers’ jersey, you win whatever you bet. If you bet $100, for instance, you would win $100 if she wore their jersey.
The bet is -140 that she won’t wear a Flyers’ jersey. So you would have to bet $140 to win $100. (Apparently, the oddsmakers don’t think she’d wear a Flyers’ jersey because it would offend New York voters, er, fans.)

Afternoon Arugula

An actual post on arugula … courtesy of Matt.

Ezra has a Princeton political scientist saying almost EXACTLY what we said yesterday in response to Blumenthal’s analysis. And we ain’t even got no PhD’s.

TPM thinks that, if McCain weren’t a presidential candidate, there might be good reason for the Secret Service to worry about his rallies.

Marc doesn’t think McCain is being serious right now.

Matt thinks Obama is definitely playing mindgames with McCain over the Ayers thing.

Ezra reminds us that the self-interest of all of these failing lending institutions is reinforcing their tendency to fail in tough times(just as their self-interest reinforced their tendency to succeed in good times).

Market performance vs. McCain, a chart.

Mark Blumenthal looks at yesterday’s polls and also is surprised by West Virginia.

The always sharp David Gergen is worried that this nonsense from McCain-Palin could lead to violence.

Republicans and Democrats alike condemn the McCain campaign.

Omaha is in play! Go Huskers!

Ta-Nehisi thinks John McCain is Tyson right before the Douglass KO and ...

… beef is when the working folks can’t find jobs.

Ed Week finally debunks the insane “Annenberg is radical” myth, but the funniest part is that Mrs. Annenberg is a big McCain supporter.

Registration alone could turn this one.

Republican Baltimore Sun reporter connects McCain to right-wing extremist hate. (via TPM)

Sean at FiveThirtyEight lays the smack down on Michael Barone.

Even Fox can’t get Ayers to stick.