Afternoon Arugula

Ben has a fascinating account from a canvasser and predicts backlash if Wright comes up more often.

Matt finds it strange that McCain would change his tune now on the Keating Five, though admires his “all-in” approach.

TPM has new polls that stun me. Double digit leads in VA … for Obama!!

The Google reveals the strength of Obama’s pre-emption strategy.

Marc reports on young voter preferences, via a new MTV/Gallup/USA Today poll and has David Brooks calling the election for Obama.

Ezra thinks the new Keating documentary is damning for McCain. Also, mega props to the Obama camp’s discipline around this. They clearly didn’t throw this together overnight.

Ezra also thinks that Palin displays an unreasonable amount of hubris for being overly ambitious without knowing her shit.

Disgusting.

Drrrrrty Politics

Commenter Jeremy makes a good point about the post below:

"I remember Hillary Clinton's last-ditch efforts to smear Obama in the primary campaign all to well. The scariest part of her brutal campaign: her attacks worked. Conventional wisdom was that if several of the earlier state primaries were held again, Hillary would have won the nomination."

I agree that some of Sen. Clinton's attacks may have been detrimental to Obama's campaign, but I don't think that her efforts had much to do with the outcome of the primaries. There were huge structural advantages for Clinton built into the end of the primary calendar, including the late voting of states with the largest poor, white, Democrat populations (i.e. OH and PA). Obama never hoped to win those states. In fact, by the end of the primary season, Plouffe was looking like an oracle, because the delegate projections the Obama campaign had unveiled in February basically came true. (This was documented in a bunch of places, but the only place I could find quickly was this.)

So, while I definitely respect my friend Jeremy's point that nobody should relax at this point, I think that it's worth remembering that Clinton's tactics probably had little to do with the late primary wins. One might even suggest that the current economic zeitgeist, similarly, will prove to be the inexorable force in the general election. But, as he is a Philadelphia sports fan, I know Jeremy won't be convinced of an Obama win until November 9th or 10th, at the absolute earliest.

-Education Dude

Must Read Ezra Klein!

If you read one thing today, read Ezra Klein’s admonishment of the McCain campaign. It is either a preemptive obituary or an oracular vision of an even sadder America than the one in which we currently live. In the best case scenario, McCain loses, because he’s supposed to lose:

“The problem with elections is that few candidates can accept that there are years in which they should lose. Not because they are possessed of insufficient virtue, or because they would be poor leaders, but because their party has failed, and the economy is poor, and the Iraq War was a mistake. Because they were unlucky, and it is simply not their year, and their depressing job is simply to sustain the continuity of the two-party system.”

Candidates run into trouble when they fight this basic reality. And the problem is, sometimes that fight works, and it does nothing to help America, but rather pushes us closer to the same dark forces that have caused us to ignore the facts and pursue strategies that weaken us, as both a country and as individuals. We have to stop this. Obama '08.

-Education Dude

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Obama pushes for registration on morning radio shows.

Ben and Marc report that Obama is giving the go-ahead to surrogates to mention the Keating Five scandal.

Fun with Google from 10 years ago: Your search - "sarah palin" - did not match any documents.

Andrew wants a president with anticipatory powers … like Obama!

Marc has the McCain campaign’s game plan for the rest of the election. It’s not pretty, and let’s hope it’s not effective either. He also has Rove’s map, which now puts Obama over the top. For the record, I really didn’t want to link to Rove’s site, so I’m glad Marc bit the bullet.

Matt looks at guilt by guilt vs. guilt by association. Does McCain really want to play either game?

This TPM lead hurts. And they report on Palin’s newest speech.

FiveThirtyEight has Obama still rising. And Georgia is an interesting case.

AFL-CIO's Richard Trumka on Racism and Obama

Good freakin' speech.

Things That Have Changed As a Result of This Election ...

1) Look to the right of this post. A first term black senator in his mid-40s is right now holding a commanding lead over a five term white senator who is a former POW and Vietnam vet. Whatever the outcome, this is some kind of progress, right?

2) Look at the video below. Tina Fey was already a respected, talented comedian, but this sketch solidifies her as - by far - the most influential comedian of this period in our electoral politics. Say what you will about race differences vs. gender differences, but I am willing to assert that the gender gap in comedy is far more prevalent than the race gap. Tina Fey just drove that gap over a cliff in a burning, runaway freight train full of nuclear warheads.

(Update: Ezra thinks Tina Fey is really influential too.)

-Education Dude

SNL Palin-Biden Debate

"And for those Joe Six Packs playing a drinking game at home? 'Maverick.'"

Afternoon Arugula

Everyone has some sort of take on the debate last night. Click through to hear them, although most of the people I link to are progressive bloggers that all say pretty similar things. Despite the fact that Sarah Palin didn’t hurl her feces at the moderator – which is what some folks seemed to have been expecting – Biden, in immediate polls, seems to be the winner. Did substance really just beat style? I like the way Ezra puts it:

“The debates, in a sense, are exposing the bedrock facts of the election. The Democratic case is winning.”

Ezra thinks that Biden earned his nomination last night.

Andrew gives an award to a truthful conservative and sees that the “ready to lead” gap is striking for the veep candidates.

Matt thinks the outcomes of the election will only reinforce the macroeconomic zeitgeist.

Also, he talks about Palin as the ultimate, post-irony metacandidate.

Speaking of meta, I unfortunately didn’t post this yesterday, but Ezra’s take on the metaphysics of debate expectations was genius.

Nate does a good analysis of the big Michigan pullout, which will soon be developed into a Detroit based action-porn.

Guest Comment Hors D'oeuvres

Thanks to our commenters for providing today's Hors D'oeuvres:

From Jeremy Lavine via CEO Dudette: Lightning!

From Adennak via Andrew Sullivan via Dorfie:

Ifill/Biden Drop the Ball

Conventional Sarah Palin analysis: The Couric interviews were a disaster; last night's debate was an unmitigated success.

But the same Sarah Palin was on display-- evading tough questions, sticking to her talking points. Only difference? Couric forced her to respond to questions with specifics; Biden and Ifill did not.

The New York Times Editorial Board points to foreign policy examples:

Asked about Israel, Ms. Palin reeled off her support for “a two-state solution, building our embassy also in Jerusalem, those things that we look forward to being able to accomplish with this peace-seeking nation.” Asked about the possible use of nuclear weapons, she declared “nuclear weaponry, of course, would be the be-all, end-all of just too many people and too many parts of our planet.” On Iraq, all she had to offer was the false accusation that Barack Obama wants to surrender.

A domestic policy example may be found in this exchange:

BIDEN: With regard to bankruptcy now, Gwen, what we should be doing now -- and Barack Obama and I support it -- we should be allowing bankruptcy courts to be able to re-adjust not just the interest rate you're paying on your mortgage to be able to stay in your home, but be able to adjust the principal that you owe, the principal that you owe.

That would keep people in their homes, actually help banks by keeping it from going under. But John McCain, as I understand it -- I'm not sure of this, but I believe John McCain and the governor don't support that. There are ways to help people now. And there -- ways that we're offering are not being supported by -- by the Bush administration nor do I believe by John McCain and Governor Palin.

IFILL: Governor Palin, is that so?

PALIN: That is not so, but because that's just a quick answer, I want to talk about, again, my record on energy versus your ticket's energy ticket, also.

Yesterday, we wrote:

But this is not a usual election. A 72 year old seeks the Presidency with a running-mate who appears to have never before thought about national or international issues. Tonight is the prime opportunity for the American people to discover just how frightening a proposition that is.

Last night's opportunity was lost.

-Law Dude

Homer Votes for Obama!

Remember Slick Willy?

Brian Beutler on Bill Clinton:

"What if Bill Clinton’s apparent hostility to Barack Obama in recent weeks and months has actually been a ploy to draw greater-than-normal attention to his fall campaign events ..."

Matt thinks this has more to do with the fact that Clinton is "two or three orders of magnitude better than anyone else in politics at explaining to the public why it is that the financial rescue package serves the interests of ordinary citizen." So, I agree, Clinton is definitely more in his sweet spot as a campaigner.

I think Beutler has a point though. Here’s a thought experiment: think about the time when you made the most politically (lowercase "p") calculated decision of your life. Even folks without political saavy have done it once or twice, and at the time you’re sort of like “Wow, that was really tricky of me,” and you’re sort of proud of yourself in a weird way for being so strategic and sneaky.

Now, imagine you’re one of the best politicians EVER. In the world. How much more unreal would your quotidian political calculations be? Yeah, that’s what Bill Clinton’s life is like EVERY … FREAKING … DAY.

-Education Dude

Afternoon Arugula

I know today is veep debate day, and I know that the senate voted on the bailout last night, but I think the big news today has to be that McCain is pulling out of Michigan.

Which Marc sees as McCain moving to defense.

I was going to write my argument for why this debate won’t be nearly as bad for Palin as everybody seems to think, but Anonymous Liberal beat me to it.

Matt debunks the insane idea that McCain predicted the current crisis. Now with video!

Another Rolling Stone piece on our great war hero.

Math nerd brawl … round 2.

Palin’s awesome pre-debate strategy is to direct the conversation toward an area – foreign policy – where there is the greatest competence gap for her. Why are we surprised about this? Isn’t Rovian politics all about turning an opponent’s greatest strength into his/her weakness?

TPM has Obama getting emotional on the economy. This stuff even chokes me up.

Ezra adds more to the earlier earmarks discussion.

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Ben helps set expectations for tonight’s debate, and reminds us that Biden is actually really good at debating. Oh wait. We're not supposed to say that! He's a loose cannon!

All-Obama .. all the time!!

Marc is looking to 2012 Republican challengers already … I wouldn’t bet on him being the only one doing this calculus.

He also looks at the McCain as angry narrative, which certainly wasn’t helped by his brusqueness with Obama last night.

Matt wonders if McCain would veto the bill he just voted for, since there are earmarks attached. This just illustrates the danger of demagogic campaign positions like being against earmarks.

McCain repeats a lot of stories that are factually inaccurate. Have we learned NOTHING about campaigning in the internet age?

If you want to watch the adult version of a nerd fight in math class, it doesn’t get much better than Nate’s smackdown of RCP today.

Tonight's Debate Will Be All About Ifill

Tonight, Biden will likely not take on Palin. As Robert Shrum notes, "[Biden] has two strategic objectives: defend and advance Obama, and go after McCain. . . . Palin may blow herself up, but Biden can't spend his time trying to light the fuse."

Palin, on the other hand, will continue her pattern of evading nearly all questions (tough(?)- like what lessons she's learned from Iraq and easy- like what news sources she reads). With Biden not challenging her, it will be up to moderator Gwen Ifill to ensure that Palin doesn't evade answering questions by challenging her with follow-ups.

If Ifill fills this role- then great. But if not, it doesn't seem like a good idea for Biden to lay off Palin. Sure, the conventional wisdom is that a VP nominee doesn't affect Americans' votes. Such wisdom dictates a strategy of Biden advancing Obama and attacking McCain.

But this is not a usual election. A 72 year old seeks the Presidency with a running-mate who appears to have never before thought about national or international issues. Tonight is the prime opportunity for the American people to discover just how frightening a proposition that is.

-Law Dude

Fox Is [Not] Biased

Gawker has the greatest clip ever.

Contempt for Government

I think Ta-Nehisi has it exactly right about Palin's fundamental contempt for government. Frankly, selecting her as a running mate reveals the same level of contempt in McCain.

"But Palin's entire participation in this process has been an exercise in disrespect for government and the presidency. Some would argue that is, at the end of the day, what conservatism is--that if you hate government, you'll be bad at talking about it."

In general, Ta-Nehisi has been great on pointing out the insane incoherence of most McCain-Palin strategies.

-Education Dude

Afternoon Arugula

Bill Clinton is like an annoying ex-girlfriend who’s really good in bed. Some days you can never remember why the hell you liked him in the first place, and then he comes through like this and you’re all, “Oh, yeah.”

In our continuing coverage of campaign eating habits, Ben has a funny exchange between the two camps’ economic advisors. Also, I have it on good authority that Obama likes bananas and green tea. (Hat tip: SJ)

If you’re a Palin look alike, and you have lax morals, there’s a place for you in the new economy.

Andrew plays witness to the Republicans weeding out the heretics.

Nate has a really good point on the Ifill issue … uncertainty favors the Democrat. Today’s 538 coverage of polls also push things further into the blue.

Ezra thinks that we should be wary of trying to let McCain off the hook for his campaign.

TPM does us all a favor and compiles Sarah Palin’s greatest hits. They also have the latest CNN polls, which look great for Obama.

McCain: baller, shot caller.

Hook and Bullet Voters

Education Dude's favorite education thinker Eduwonk has a new monthly column over at US News, which is HUGE for him, but more importantly, for readers of US News, because he's always terribly insightful. Make sure to check out the maiden voyage, which this month focuses on the "Cabelas vote," and how new land access and environmental issues offer inroads for Democrats to votes that Republicans traditionally have dominated:

"Senator Obama is wisely not pretending to be an outdoorsman ... Instead, Obama is trying to make sure hunters and anglers know that he understands their concerns and cares about the environmental and land access issues that are vital to their sports. He is supporting expanded hunter education programs and provisions of the recent farm bill intended to put more land in conservation use."

This is just one example of ways in which we could be seeing a major electoral realignment that alters the underlying structual issues in American politics for a long time. But, I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's just win this election!

-Education Dude

Morning Hors D'oeuvres

Watch as the Pollster average for Obama creeps toward 50% … on to the clips …

Quinnipiac has Obama ascendant in three MAJOR battlegrounds. Politico looks at why.

Ben offers some rare coverage of Obama’s sub rosa radio campaign.

Palin is cramming to be Veep. Let me pose a couple of hypotheticals: would you be comfortable if the person about to perform brain surgery on you son or daughter was cramming the night before? What about the pilot on an intercontinental flight? Can s/he cram?

Marc finds that some of McCain’s decline is due to Palin. The economy also figures, but not as prominently. Still, he says, there is a case to be made that she’s been helpful, politically.

Matt has a former ambassador to Pakistan dressing down McCain on the “failed state” issue.

Ezra makes a good point about the sort of Catch-22 involved in Palin’s “all of them” answer from last night. Admitting she reads actual news sources would undercut the McCain campaign’s attempt to de-legitimize them.

TPM has the transcript of Palin’s interview with Hewitt. Apparently she thinks the liberal media hates her average-ness. Yes, Governor, you might be average for a citizen, but you are WAY below average for a Veep candidate. Don’t kid yourself.